Projecting Warming’s Impact On Ice and Oceans for up to 1,000 Years

Two new studies project that the long-term effects of global warming could pump so much heat into the oceans that warming will continue until the year 3000 and that, in the short term, three-quarters of the Alps’ glaciers could melt by 2100. The long-range study, conducted by researchers at the Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis, said that even if CO2 emissions are brought under control this century, enough heat will be transferred from the atmosphere to the deep oceans that temperatures in the Southern Ocean, which surrounds Antarctica, could rise by 9 degrees F in the next 1,000 years, leading to the melting of the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet and an increase in global sea levels of 13 feet. But the scientists said that significantly lowering CO2 emissions could prevent even steeper temperature increases and more calamitous effects of warming. The global glacier study, conducted by scientists from the University of British Columbia and the University of Alaska, projected that the world’s mountain glaciers will shrink by 15 to 27 percent by 2100, with New Zealand’s glaciers losing 72 percent of their mass, the Alps 75 percent, Greenland’s small glaciers 8 percent, and high-mountain Asian glaciers 10 percent.