La Niña Looking Less Likely as Ocean Waters Stay Balmy

In September, sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific were near average.

In September, sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific were near average. NOAA

As ocean temperatures remain stubbornly high, forecasters see a diminished chance that the Pacific Ocean will enter its cooler La Niña phase this fall, as was predicted.

After a particularly warm El Niño ended in early summer, the Pacific entered its neutral phase. U.S. forecasters had previously said there was a 70 percent chance that La Niña would then take shape in early fall. They have since downgraded their forecast to a 60 percent chance of a brief La Niña forming in mid- to late fall.

The Australian weather service, meanwhile, predicts that ocean waters will remain warm enough to extend the neutral phase through at least February 2025. Forecasters say that if a La Niña does materialize, it will be relatively weak and short-lived.

Globally, the temperature of ocean surface continues to be at near-record highs. According to Australian weather officials, persistent ocean heat means that El Niño and La Niña “may not necessarily behave or evolve as they have in the past.”

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