Latest MIT Computer Models Show Rapidly Accelerating Warming Trend

Running 400 computer simulations that take into account everything from economic growth to the ocean’s ability to absorb CO2, MIT scientists say there is a 90 percent chance that global temperatures will increase 3.5 to 7.4 degrees Celsius (6.3 to 13.3 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century. The MIT simulations estimate a median rate of surface warming of 5.2 degrees C (9.4 degrees F) by 2100. That is twice the median temperature increase estimated by the same scientists six years ago, and they said their higher projections were based, in part, on data showing rapid growth of greenhouse emissions in the developing world and a lower probability of greenhouse gas reductions in the decades to come. The scientists said that extreme warming could be significantly reduced if the world community takes rapid action to cut greenhouse has emissions. “There is significantly more risk than we previously estimated,” said Ronald Prinn, director of MIT’s Center for Global Change Science. “This increases the urgency for significant policy action.”