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A study of hundreds of armed conflicts around the world finds that severe drought raises the risk of violent clashes. The study is the latest addition to a growing body of evidence showing that climate shocks spark conflict.
The research uses El Niño, the warm phase of the Pacific Ocean, as a kind of natural experiment. Every three to seven years, the climate phenomenon alters rainfall across much of the world, fueling heavier downpours in some regions and more arid weather in others.
When researchers analyzed 555 armed conflicts from 1950 to 2023, they found that, during El Niño, the risk of conflict grows. The risk is greatest in Central America, southern Africa, and other regions where El Niño gives rise to drought. The study is not the first to find that El Niño raises the risk of armed conflict, but it takes a more detailed view than prior research, authors say.
The study also looked at the effect of the Indian Ocean Dipole, sometimes called the “Indian Niño,” which can alternately fuel severe rainfall and intense drought in parts of Asia, Africa, and Australia. The study found that both extremes raise the risk of conflict in Southeast Asia and the Horn of Africa.
Coauthor Sylvia Dee, a climate scientist at Rice University, noted that the Indian Ocean Dipole “can shift rapidly, creating climate ‘whiplash’ that may disrupt already vulnerable regions.”
Authors say the findings, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, could help governments think about when and where climate shocks may raise the risk of conflict. They note that an El Niño is expected to take shape this summer, and according to some forecasts, it may be one of the strongest ever recorded.
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