Heat Waves to Intensify Across U.S. in Next 30 Years, Study Says

Intense heat waves similar to the one that struck the eastern U.S. this past week will become increasingly common in the next three decades, according to a detailed study by Stanford University scientists. Analyzing U.S. temperature data from 1950 to 1999, and then using numerous models to extrapolate that data under the likely scenario that global temperatures will rise 1.8 degrees F between 2010 and 2039, lead researcher Noah Diffenbaugh said his team was surprised to see how many intense heat waves can be expected to hit the U.S. over the next 30 years. For example, in 2020s, much of the western and central U.S. can expect to experience five extremely intense heat waves that equal or exceed the worst heat wave on record from 1950 to 1999. The study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, said that the 2030s will be even hotter, with the West suffering more than five extreme events per decade. Such intense heat, attributable to the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, poses a major threat to human health and crops such as corn, soybeans, cotton, and wine grapes, the study said. A 1.8 degree F rise in the next 30 years would mean that global temperatures will have increased 3.6 degree F (2 C) since the mid-19th century — the threshold beyond which many climate scientists predict serious climatic destabilization.