Melting Glaciers in Asia To Have Widely Variable Impact, Study Says

Melting glaciers in the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau will decrease river flows and possibly cause food shortages in some regions of South Asia, but will not severely impact other river basins farther east, according to a study by Dutch scientists. Using satellite observations of glacial retreat, data on river flows, and computer modeling, the researchers from Utrecht University projected that rivers whose flow depends heavily on melting glaciers — including the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and, to a lesser extent, the Indus — could see water supplies decline by 20 percent by 2050. That could threaten the food security of an estimated 60 million people in Pakistan and India, according to the study, published in the journal Science. But rivers whose flows are more dependent on monsoon rains than glacial melt, such as China’s Yangtze and Yellow rivers, could actually see an increase in water supplies as monsoon patterns change this century due to rising temperatures. The study projected that the Yellow River basin could see a 9.5 percent increase in precipitation. Some scientists questioned the Dutch study, with one Chinese researcher saying the study omitted several key basins in Central Asia and northwest China that will be hard hit by water loss from melting glaciers.