Experts Failing to Account for Ripple Effects from Extreme Weather, Paper Warns

Smoke from wildfires in Canada clouded skies in New York City in the summer of 2023.

Smoke from wildfires in Canada clouded skies in New York City in the summer of 2023. Anthony Quintano via Flickr

A drought in Russia led to riots in Egypt. Fires in Canada fueled deadly pollution in Spain. Extreme weather can have knock-on effects in faraway places that are not well understood and rarely accounted for in planning, a new paper warns.

In 2010, a drought hit Russia, leading to critical shortages of wheat. After the country banned wheat exports, prices rose on the global market, fueling unrest as far away as Egypt. By 2011, bread prices had risen by 300 percent in parts of Egypt, sparking riots across much of the country.

In 2023, the unprecedented wildfires that burned across Canada unleashed massive plumes of smoke that clouded skies from Chicago to New York to parts of Europe. The spike in pollution contributed to the deaths of more than 22,000 Europeans, according to one estimate.

Last summer, extreme heat in France not only raised demand for cooling, but also stymied nuclear power. Regulations in France prevent nuclear plants from discharging hot water into overheated streams. As rivers warmed up, many nuclear power plants had to shut down.

By failing to consider the ripple effects of extreme weather, experts risk undercounting its true cost or not preparing for its full impact, scientists argue in a new paper, published in the journal Science. Authors call for developing a global monitoring system to track the cascading impacts of weather disasters. The information, it says, could help to better guard against new climate extremes.

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